According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, there are nine teams that have at least a 10% chance to make the College Football Playoff, but only six have at least a 1% chance of actually winning the national title.

So you’re saying there’s a chance … for Texas?!

The Longhorns are No. 6, one of a handful of surprises in the preseason projections that also include No. 4 Clemson, No. 9 Pittsburgh and No. 10 Auburn. Yes, eyebrows are raised, but here’s a look at how each team can actually do it, what its chances are (according to ESPN’s FPI and the Allstate Playoff Predictor) and how the College Football Playoff selection committee will evaluate it:

Preseason FPI: No. 1
Preseason SP+: No. 3
Chance to win conference: 50%
Chance to make the CFP: 79%
Chance to play in the national title game: 52%

Biggest obstacle: It’s still Georgia. Georgia has a 90% chance to win the SEC East Division, while Alabama has an 85% chance to win the West, according to FPI, so it’s not only possible but likely they will face each other in the SEC championship again. Odds are that Georgia hasn’t forgotten what happened last time.